Friday, March 06, 2015
Buffet Letter 2014 - My notes : "You see a cockroach in your kitchen; as the days go by, you meet his relatives"
Wednesday, May 07, 2014
Buffet Letters 2013 - My Notes “A bull market is like sex. It feels best just before it ends.”
Thursday, June 06, 2013
Narayan murthy is back - everybody needs a hero
Tuesday, May 07, 2013
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Infosys q4 results - does it need tuition on Art of managing expectations ?
Infosys from being the most predictable company has now taken the pole position in being the most unpredictable. 2 qtrs of 20% movements ... What transpired?
How can a company /mgmt which is unable to communicate clearly to investors about business outlook and performance - be doing the right things with its clients in a service industry?
OR
Should one argue that the company has been consistent and it was the analysts cum investor community which fell into the Trap of Greed and fear. While last time I vocally went in support of analysts saying that they are victims of mgmt guidance - Did they become over exuberant - looking at only the silver lining ...when the picture painted was ominous?
While - analysts and company both messed it up royally - this is the time for shrewd investors to bet against momentum.
Recently was very positively surprised by ZEEL mgmt to correct - analyst expectations - something INFY can learn from. ZEEL while has had a weak past of CG ...atleast the promoters are Cognizant of the permanent impact on surprising the street negatively and the need of managing expectations.
Personally - I prefer companies like Infosys - were they give opportunity for the level headed to swim against the tide and avoid the noise .... Creating opportunities for smart investors. They add FUN to An analyst life and in situations created by INFY only experience of understanding market participants behaviour matter.
Also - had the current leadership not been founders of the company - should they not be FIRED.
MY Earlier note -
Infosys q3 results - something is definitely wrong...very very wrong.
Infosys q3 results were greeted by e Big Bang by the street with the stock surging close to 17% ... That's a record for any NIFTY stock. But this movement raises many many questions ... How can a company which is covered by maximum analysts ...more than 70 in last count ...get it so wrong and be so significantly surprised. This raises questions more on the companies ability and intent ... Less on the analysts intellect. I being an analyst and have spent considerable time in analysing analyst behaviour can appreciate why the analysts got it wrong .... SIMPLE : company recent performance has been poor. After years of consistently beating its own guidance ... The company had faltered in the last few quarters. Past track record of INFY had been consistently meeting or beating its own guidance and common analyst practise was to forecast 2-5% above company guidance. This was in complete sync with Narayan murthy business maxim - to retain trust of investors, it is better to under promise and over deliver.
Infosys started a culture of giving out qtrly guidance ... Because NRM felt that investors should be aware of as much as data as the company was aware of. Also, NRM clear belief - when in doubt, disclose. So what transpired in this quarter was a miracle - Infosys after having unable to meet the guidance in the last few quarters had faced a lot of investor wrath... As investors believed that the company had lost its touch. Also, this believe was further supported by the mgmt who ... Kept guiding for inability to meet numbers again during the quarter. This led to MUTED expectations and lower multiples. However, the results were totally different.... Results were strong on all counts.. High volume growth and rate increase.
So why did the mgmt give a wrong impression of business condition/performance ?
Did this action create value for share holders or destroyed value ?
With the disclosure of being an analyst - I strongly argue the case for An analyst not being at fault ...as it is always better to be conservative and one should rarely make forecasts against mgmt guidance. In this case ... Had it been any other company ... doubts would have been raised if the company did this deliberately for the interests of few. People would have studied if - any esops were given recently of a low strike price.
While - I maintain my TRUST in believing in the value system of INFOSYS ... I believe their are valid questions of what went wrong with investor communication.
Sunday, March 10, 2013
DREAMing
Really awed by Ben affleck....first as an actor and then realising the direction.
Two key learnings:
How do u put your life in the the line of duty .... When u r assured no recognition at all. At times confirmed defamation if things don't go as planned.
I guess ... This is a big learning for corporate life. Day in and day out most professional decision are formed on what's in it for me. Will I be praised, recommended and promoted for this? Will it lead to my career enhancement? While, the biggest joy in life is to make people smile .... This as an end gets quantified mostly in terms of financial gains.
Gita Saar - KARAM kar Fal Ki icchcha mat kar. ( the only Gita Saar I remember and however SOCIALIST it sounds ...has far more and many interpretations).
DREAM BIG and keep dreaming
I still believe the AMERICANS are the best story tellers. Remember a talk titled on TED by Shekar Kapoor - We are the stories we tell ourselves. America is a great nation ...because it can tell great stories and one can do that when we only have a culture of promoting dreams. The only 2 great stories I remember of india are Ramayana and Mahabharata .... Undoubtedly we were great then.
Until - we are so hung up on being in the rat race for schools, education, degrees & jobs....
With a billion+ pop ...we suck at Sports ./ Olympics. Because sports don't make a traditional living. Wish what the parents of Sachin, PT Usha, Anand , kapil .... Had to tell their kids? Cricket , Bhangra , chess is OK..but see that u score well in maths. AR Rahman ....do Well in English. We seriously need to DREAM, celebrate failure , take risks and Failure should not be a taboo.. It should be learning path to success.
Also, why do we have an age for everything. We must have the least divergence in marriage age.... 18-30 period. Every youngster has to start earning his income to support a family and be prepared for marriage. Bollywood is the bet example ....where dreams are not victims of society determined rights for marriage, secure income. Bollywood has given us GE dream of amitabh bachchan ...he was told he was too tall and his voice very coarse. Shahrukh from another actor in TV series FAUJI is the superstar.
DREAM..... DREAM BIG.... World will criticise you and then celebrate with you ( no intermediate points) ..... Celebrate journey ... Not the goal
Sunday, January 13, 2013
TATA log by Harish Bhat (Tata insider) - book thoughts ...
I took this book... Because I am always intrigued by the Tata group .... It's an iconic brand and commands respect like no other. Tata group upholds above all a belief of sincerity towards the consumer.
Foreword states Ratan Tata speech - Think Big. lead. never follow. ( inspiring ).
This book has a few stories about we're TATA group exhibited character ...and How.
4ps which makes TATA a 150 yr old strong brand and can be called the TATA way are - pioneer, principled, purposive and perfect.
Quote JRD Tata - ' I have often come to the conclusion that if we were like other groups, we would be twice as big as we are today. What we have sacrificed is a 100 per cent growth, but we wouldn't want it any other way.'
I had personally been negative on TATA for their lacklustre performance vis a vis reliance. BUT today I can say for sure that the comparison is very stupid.
Book is a collection of few stories...which characterises the Tata log
First story - TATA indica
Story of pioneering .... We're how RATAN Tata gave a clarion call for Indian own car ...and set to go about it. After some initial hiccups in product ... The product has done well.
My thoughts : don't agree at all. Why this need of do it urself? And anyways is Tata indica around.... It might no longer be the preferred taxi as well. The only reason it did well for was it was on diesel and best suited for the economy minded taxi business. TATA motors cars ... SUMO yes for it's size helps the large Indian family ... The remaining Tata estate , safari more an extension of the commercial vehicle business. Also, Tata nano is a disaster at best. Tata motors is today largely about jaguar and land rover...and that's the best thing they did. So what's great about indica and nano... Good attempts ...but sorry. So much for pioneering.....
Tata chemicals - nice work on saving the shark whale. Never knew about it
SCIP - second career for intelligent people ...targeted at women... Awesome ideation.
Tata finance ... Nobody is infallible. Hats off to the way Tata managed to come out unscathed. The recent telecom scam was another example. It requires very strong value system to not bend with the system. If any company deserved to be in airlines is TATA but for the bribe seeking politicians. Tata sons owned up all misdeeds of Tata finance and ensured no consumer was hurt. Today , the norm is that bankers are party to the crime. How can our banking system tolerate - Deccan chronicle, mahua tv and zoom developers. Not naming infra companies and kingfisher ... as they are more of operational failures.
Tanishq - Pioneer and Perseverance
Silly fact : Titan began as a ownership with Tamil Nadu govt ...
Silly fact 2 : tanishq name is ta - ( Tata and Tamil Nadu) + Nisha meaning jewellery. Another meaning tan - body , ishq - love.
Actually tanishq was name inspired by the name of a dog ...monishqa. LOL
Jewellery business... What does it take to change consumer behaviour and more so the deep rooted Indian tradition of buying gold. While after its been done it seems no rocket science.... But it requires the will of xerxes desai to get it done. Why do Indians prefer family jewellers - 22 karat gold ( fact their gold is less impure ) , black money .... And belief that showroom charge u more. I think my parents believe it completely. But I don't see anybody in my generation or the next .... Trusting family jewellers. They would prefer tanishq, TBZ, PCJ....
EKA - the super computer .... Indias first entry into supercomputers and I never knew it was pioneered by TATA and Mr. ramadorai in charge. KUDOS.
Tata steel - DEMING prize ... Only steel company outside Japan to get the rating. I think I need read more on Toyota to appreciate this quality initiative.
Tata tetley ....story of acquisition.
While ...I don't know ..if this acquisition yielded value over the long run. Looks like after the tie up with Starbucks ... But cannot agree more that it paved the way for CORUS and JLR.
Monday, August 10, 2009
Commitment & Loss aversion
On the first day of class, Professor Bazerman announces a game that seems innocuous enough. Waving a twenty-dollar bill in the air, he offers it up for auction.
Everybody is free to bid; there are only two rules. The first is that bids are to be made in $1 increments. The second rule is a little trickier. The winner of the auction, of course, wins the bill. But the runner-up must still honor his or her bid, while receiving nothing in return. In other words, this is a situation where second best finishes last.
Indeed, at the beginning of the auction, as people sniff out an opportunity to get a $20 bill for a bargain, the hands quickly shoot up, and the auction is officially under way. A flurry of bids follows. As Bazerman described it, "The pat tern is always the same. The bidding starts out fast and furi ous until it reaches the $12 to $16 range."
At this point, it becomes clear to each of the participants that he or she isn't the only one with the brilliant idea of winning the twenty bucks for cheap. There is a collective hard swallow. As if sensing the floodwaters rising, the stu dents get jittery. "Everyone except the two highest bidders drops out of the auction," Bazerman explained.
Without realizing it, the two students with the highest bids get locked in. "One bidder has bid $16 and the other has bid $17," Bazerman said. "The $16 bidder must either bid $18 or suffer a $16 loss." Up to this point the students were looking to make a quick dollar; now neither one wants to be the sucker who paid good money for nothing. This is when the students adopt the equivalent of football's war-of -attrition model. They become committed to the strategy of playing not to lose.
Like a runaway train, the auction continues, with the bid ding going up past $18, $19, and $20. As the price climbs higher, the other students don't know whether to watch or cover their eyes. "Of course," reflected Bazerman, "the rest of the group roars with laughter when the bidding goes over $20."
From a rational perspective, the obvious decision would be for the bidders to accept their losses and stop the auction be fore it spins even further out of control. But that's easier said than done. Students are pulled by both the momentum of the auction and the looming loss if they back down-a loss that is growing greater by the bid. The two forces, in turn, feed off each other: commitment to a chosen path inspires additional bids, driving the price up, making the potential loss loom even larger.
And so students continue bidding: $21, $22, $23, $50, $100, up to a record $204. Over the years that Bazerman has conducted the experiment, he has never lost a penny (he donates all proceeds to charity). Regardless of who the bidders have been-college students or business executives attend ing a seminar-they are always swayed.
The deeper the hole they dig themselves into, the more they continue to dig.”
Tuesday, July 07, 2009
let your own light shine - Nelson Mandela
Our deepest fear is not that we are inadequate. Our deepest fear is that we are powerful beyond measure. It is our light, not our darkness, that most frightens us. We ask ourselves, who am I to be brilliant, gorgeous, talented and fabulous? Actually, who are you not to be? . . . There's nothing enlight ened about shrinking so that other people won't feel insecure around you. . . As we let our own light shine, we unconsciously give other people permission to do the same. As we are liber ated from our own fear, our presence automatically liberates others.
Saturday, June 06, 2009
Investor wilderness
Two days later, the pilot returned. Despite his warning, each of the hunters had killed two moose. Too much weight, said the pilot. "But last year you said the same thing," one hunter declared. "Remember? We each paid an extra $1,000 and you took off with all four moose." Reluc tantly, the pilot agreed. The plane took off, but after an hour gas was low. The engine sputtered, and the pilot was forced to crash land. The two hunters, dazed but unhurt, climbed out of the wreckage. "Do you know where we are?" one asked. "Not sure," said the other, "but it sure looks like where we crashed last year."
Friday, August 03, 2007
A doctor reading of the Sensex
Dr: I told you earlier not to get too drunk on those high altitude parties….after all you were flying at near 16000 feet and that can get quite heady…
Sen: What to do, had so many foreigners at the party and they were all so generous with their liquor that even the domestic passengers got into the mood…..
Dr.: But still, should one not be cautious, after all you are no longer so young….have been running at this pace for the past 4 years or more!
Sen: What to do, Doc, I also got carried away. There were so many Theme parties going on in the main deck- you know, like the Infrastructure party and the Capital Goods costume dance- my, was that colorful! Doc you should have been there, I tell you!
Dr: That’s just my point- with so many theme parties, you would even have gate crashers?
Sen: You bet. We had an aerial boarding by a big bunch of Hedge fund guys who came in with their own themes- called the MidCap Salsa. The belles were so exotic that many of us started flocking to that part of the deck and every one recalled the big score that we had all made about a year or so ago at the last Mid Cap Salsa- boy, what a ball that was! I still have hangovers from that, mind you.
Dr: That is just it, If you restrict it to one or two drinks, I always recommend that you stick to the Funda Merita cocktail where the drinks are sedate and none of those exotic stuff that give you such long term hangovers, but you never listen- you always want to run after those nubile Small Seductresses who are all high on that exotic cocktail Technical Tequila.
Sen: Grow up, Doc, that is really where the fun is! After all, who is in this game for the money? That is just an excuse! We are all here to have The Great Time!
Dr: No wonder, old timers were scoffing at all your recent shenanigans. They left you high and dry after the last Angioplasty that you got back in early 2007, remember?
Sen: Hah! And who is having the last laugh? Look at their plane, it is not even taking off yet and here we are kissing 16000 feet over the air
Dr: But what happened now, you took a bad fall didn’t you? Hurt your hip, fractured a leg maybe?
Sen: Yeah, it does hurt a bit all over, but hey, I will be back, that’s what all my friends say. In fact they are waiting for me to rejoin the party.
Dr: Umm, let me see….what band was playing the music when you slipped- I am sure it must have been that hot new band, Derivative Dudes!
Sen: Yeah, you are right. And boy, were they strumming that lead guitar like crazy- you know a week ago, the volumes of vibrations from the guitar hit a new high frequency? Man that was a party! I had lots to drink that night and piloted my plane even higher. But that’s where I hit a bloody air pocket.
Dr: Well, let me take a look.. Hmmm, this wound does appear a bit nasty but nothing that cannot be patched up by some good imported Band Aid. Do you think your firangi friends will be good for that?
Sen: Yes I do think they will. But not too sure about those gate crashing Hedgie chaps- they are pretty fair weather friends, you know. I think even the Dour Domestics music band should get a chance to play now that the Derivative Dudes seem to be on a bit of a slide.
Dr: Well, I have stopped that bleeding and put in some antiseptics. The wounds are surface ones yet but take care not to catch this new virus- its called the SubPrime Defaulta virus. It is particularly virulent right now in foreign shores. Maybe contagious and you should remain wary of your foreign friends. Don’t party with them too hard.
Sen: Thanks doc, that’s a big relief. Guess I will just take it easy for a couple of weeks now. Let this virus thingy blow over a bit and then get back to my normal stride.
Dr: Sounds good to me. Good bye then.
- Contributed by Dr. CK Narayan
Sunday, July 22, 2007
Reality check on Realty
The article in the latest Economist well justifies the case of ballooning real estate in Mumbai.
A recent study by the IMF finds little evidence of housing bubbles in most Asian countries. Since 1999 house prices have risen more slowly than income in South Korea, Thailand and Hong Kong as well as China (see right-hand chart above).
In contrast, in America, house prices have risen three times as fast as real incomes. Standard Chartered, a bank, calculates that in relation to incomes, housing in South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore and Thailand is now 37-58% more affordable than it was during the peaks of those markets in the 1990s.
Don't buy in Mumbai
The only Asian country where a bubble leaps out from these charts is India, where average prices have risen by 16% a year over the past four years, well ahead of average income. It is the only country where house prices have surged by more than in America. In Bangalore and Mumbai prices doubled during 2005 and 2006.
According to Global Property Guide, a research firm, equivalent apartments in South Mumbai now cost three times more than in Shanghai, and not much less than in Tokyo—even though Indian incomes are much lower. Looking ahead the question is no longer whether, but by how much, prices will fall. Property prices in Mumbai and Bangalore have already started to slip this year as mortgage rates have increased sharply.
Elsewhere in Asia, expect home prices to keep climbing. The rest of the world is experiencing its biggest housing bubble in history: never before have real house-prices risen so fast in so many countries. But Asia has yet to join the party.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Money: The Easist metric but not the Best
Money may not be the best metric but it is the easiest and more readily avaiable along with being standardized. It is difficult to ignore the metric......
George Soros on Money and reason why it is important
But my life is not about money. For me, money is a means to an end. I focused on money in my career because I recognized that there is a tendency in our society to exaggerate the importance of money, to define values in terms of money. We appraise artists by how much their creations fetch. We appraise politicians by the amount of money they can raise; often politicians appraise themselves by the amount of money they can make on the side. I have gained recognition, not because of my philosophy or my philanthropy, but because of my success in making money. The prevailing bias in favor of money and wealth is a good example of what I mean by fallibility.
To translate the concept of fallibility into operational terms and to sharpen the point, I will assert that all our mental constructs, with a few exceptions, are actually or potentially flawed. They may contain an element of truth, but that element is likely to be exaggerated to a point where it distorts reality.
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Only buy and sell...
So it is too with stocks. Many purchase them for selling, never looking inside. But if the market declines before they succeed in disposing of the package, the value of the contents suddenly acquires a new and decisive meaning.
- From the book Classics II: Another Investor's Anthology
When someone with experience proposes a deal to someone with money, too often the fellow with money ends up with the experience, and the fellow with experience ends up with the money.
-Warren Buffet in letters to the shareholders, 2006.
Friday, January 05, 2007
Wall street
““Wall Street,” reads the sinister old gag,” is a street with a river at one end and a graveyard at the other.” This is striking, but incomplete. It monist the kindergarten in the middle.”- Fredrick Schwed Jr., Where Are The Customers’ Yachts?
Monday, January 01, 2007
New Year - Investment ahead
WISHING U ALL A HAPPY NEW YEAR.
Key Learning’s from 2006:
Be ahead of the curve:
Real estate valuation is still being debated. Anybody who could understand the same and value the Land banks was a winner. While valuation of core real estate surged…. Many companies started unlocking value from their land holdings as well. While, for every good story their traded 2 hyped stocks. Value was made by the discerning investor.
We had been positive on the real estate sector.
http://vikashmantri.blogspot.com/2006/06/real-estate-game.html
Blockbusters for 2006 were Unitech, Jai corp.
Learn to invest in Growth stocks – When markets are trading at premiums, it is less likely to find value picks than growth picks. Also one need to adapt to changing valuations as while we look for absolute gains, valuations are relative. So it makes sense to invest in relatively cheap stocks instead for waiting for cheap stocks.
Some sectors are glamorous and so are valuations : The Lisiting of some of the Real estate and Emerging sectors (Naukri.com, Educomp colution, ENIL (Radio Mirchi) saw glamorous valuations. Mainly because normal valuation models did not apply to these stocks, sectors were not understood and the possibility of making alpha gains.
Always invest before demergers - Case in point - Reliance, TV18, ZEE Telefilms
Stocks are mispriced. Demerger unlocks value. Find good hidden plays and sit tight. Valuation thumb rule. Anything below 40% of assets with a slight potential of value unlocking is a good buy. But do not invest in pure holding companies.
Also in a growth market pick up stocks which have great management, show good execution and are no.1 players….. Bharti, ICICI Bank, EKC, AIA, Suzlon, ENIL etc.
Sectors to watch out in 2007: Real estate (Value recognition to hidden plays) , Media (Economy driven) , IT (Higher visibility). NBFC (insurance (wow stock), housing finance, Auto loans, personal loans)
If some part of your portfolio is not in Gold. You are exposed to global risk.
All above views are subject to hindsight bias.
Thursday, December 28, 2006
Investing mantra
Shun pride - accumulate regret - use a benchmark - have astrategy - think relatively and focus on your long-term goal.
Thursday, November 23, 2006
Patience...
“Once we act, we forfeit the option of waiting until new information comes along. As a result, not acting has value. The more uncertain the outcome, the greater may be the value of procrastination.” - Peter Bernstein
Patience is a key element of success. – Bill gates
The outcome we are waiting for: The Markets to Tank (Correct or Consolidate are mere euphemisms)
Till when one we should wait: Well before the markets open opportunities of investing in stocks you like as low as 0.5-0.75x.
The higher the markets go from these levels (13,600) – the greater will be the fall, the greater the value of procrastination. And yes while you might be saying that there is no bad news around , why should the markets tank.- the fact is it is somebody who has to one day say that the KING is NUDE, and it could be a kid.
So collect all your cash, so that when others are panicking you are gathering your favorite picks.
And Yes WAIT!!! WAIT!!!! WAIT!!! WAIT!!!
Monday, November 06, 2006
Markets- Dizzying Heights
The same is so true for the stock markets….when they are going up and everybody wants to play the game. Many of them are their just because everybody else is their…because being invested in the markets is the in thing. When everybody is buying multi-baggers, why should one stay away and all concepts of risk are thrown out in the dustbin.
The way to make good money in a Bull market-
“Avoid making bad investments – dump 90% of the stock ideas in the bin without even reading them.
The current state of the Equity markets can be summarized by:
There are moments when everything goes well; don't be frightened, it won't last. -Jules Renard
Trading at 20 times trailing earnings – the markets scare me but I have not been here long enough to know a lot about it but I know one thing better be scared than lose. They are good ideas still…but I know they will be better ideas once there is no crowd.
Tuesday, August 08, 2006
The Ben Bernake Dillemma
“most economists use statistics like drunks use lampposts: for support more than for light”
-Churchill
The challenge before Bernake is to make a decision to pause/stop the fed rate hike this FOMC meeting or not. While, in the last meeting the central banker suggested that forward is likely to be a slave of data (statistics). The rising inflation (11 year high) reported substantiates a rate hike. However, the growing unemployment (bad data) and slump in Housing shows that another rate hike can push to recession as equity markets are jittery coupled with geopolitical uncertainty and rising energy prices.
Come what may it is going to be trouble some for the America’s.
What needs to be watched is that whether Bernake uses the statistics as a lamp post for support or light. While in the past we saw all assets price increasing commodities, real estate and equity – a further rise in Fed rate will shake the equity markets and the real estate. I therefore, do not see a rate hike but the inflation data going forward is going to be worrisome. Get ready for some challenging times ahead……